2004 Box Office Predictions

I'm going to attempt something nearly impossible, just for fun. I'm going to predict which 2004 releases will have the highest domestic grosses after they have run their full course. Predicting the box office the day before its opening weekend is difficult and unpredictable enough, but predicting the results six months in advance? Is this man insane? Well, if I were putting money on my bets, then I'd be insane. So basically, if I'm right, I get amazing bragging rights. If I'm wrong, no harm no foul. Here we go:

1. Spider-Man 2

The original Spider-Man grossed more than $400 million domestically, and still holds the record for biggest three-day opening. The second movie looks even better, and has a bigger marketing budget behind it. Except for the unfortunate TV ads, the advance video previews look incredible. I'd actually be surprised if Spider-Man 2 opened smaller than Spider-Man or Shrek 2, and it will likely have legs just as strong, if not stronger, than the original. This one could gross anywhere from $400 million to $500 million (which, if reached, would be good enough for the #2 spot of all time domestic grossers, behind the unbeatable Titanic).

2. Shrek 2

If I had put this list out before the summer had started, Shrek 2 would have been three or four spots further down the list, but it opened much larger, and has had better legs than anyone expected. Shrek 2 is another testament to the unpredictable nature of the box office. It looks to finish with $380-$400 million, the highest-grossing animated movie ever.

3. The Incredibles

I really don't know what to expect from this one. The buzz about this one is good, and Pixar hasn't missed yet, but can it match the astounding gross of Shrek 2? I have little doubt that it will be a better film than Shrek 2 (whether other critics agree or not, I don't care), and it has the revered Pixar brand on it, but it will face heavy competition in late 2004 from The Polar Express, The Spongebob Squarepants Movie and Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events. But, if it continues to the trend of continually bigger grosses for animated movies from Pixar and Dreamworks, it could surpass Shrek 2 for the #2 spot. The Incredibles could end up with a total of anywhere from $350-$430 million, so I'm not quite sure where to put it.

4. The Passion of the Christ

The final gross for this one is already known, but where it fits on this list is uncertain. It has finished it's run with about $370 million. It was the #1 film of the year until Shrek 2 passed it this weekend, and it remains to be seen what other films will challenge it this year.

5. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

Even though the movie looks to gross less than its predecessors, it's still a powerhouse by sheer virtue of its opening. It looks to finish with $220-$270 million.

The Unknowns

As you may have noticed, there is a huge gap ($150 million) between The Passion of the Christ and Harry Potter 3's estimated gross. But, there are only three flicks I can see squeezing into that spot, and only if they do better than expected. Shark Tale is perhaps the most unpredictable of them, a likely blockbuster launching in the no man's land that is early October. The last few fully-CG movies have all grossed more than $250 million, but I doubt Shark Tale can match their grosses launching in October. I'm prepared to be wrong. Perhaps Shark Tale will create another tentpole slot for coming year.

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow is another big unknown. Early buzz and script reviews were overwhelmingly positive, but then it's release was pushed back and the buzz quieted. If Sky Captain is the best pulp fiction movie since, well, Pulp Fiction, it stands a chance at breaking $250 million, otherwise it will just be the next Van Helsing or Troy.

Alexander is another complete unknown. If it is a much better movie than Troy, it could break into the top 5 for the year, but I'm fairly certain it will end up like Troy.

And who knows? We could have a surprise uber-blockbuster from anywhere this year. Six months before its release, no one expected The Passion of the Christ would be one fifth as big as it is, so prepare yourselves for something like Blade: Trinity or The Polar Express or any other upcoming release to surprise us all.